First Class
Vol. I
Q2 2026 · Inaugural Issue
The UAE Short-Term Rental Index
State of
the UAE Market.
A quarterly study of performance, supply, demand, and yield across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Ras Al Khaimah.
PERFECTED BY FIRST CLASS
Market - Q2 2026
RevPAR
AED 178
Occupancy
48%
First Class Portfolio
RevPAR
AED 234
Occupancy
87%
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
02 / 19
Luis Santos
Luis Santos
Co-Founder & Managing Director
Rohollah Rohparwar
Rohollah Rohparwar
Co-Founder & Managing Director
FOREWORD
A new standard for
market intelligence.

The UAE short-term rental market is now one of the most dynamic in the world — yet the data behind it remains fragmented and opaque.

This inaugural edition arrives at a consequential moment: Q2 2026 is the first full quarter shaped by the regional conflict escalation of mid-March, even as the UAE doubled down on tourism with landmark commitments like Sphere Abu Dhabi. Our aim is to cut through the noise with first-party operating data, reconciled against market and official sources.

Built on managed-portfolio operations, validated against market and property datasets, and contextualised through Dubai's DET and Abu Dhabi's DCT.

Luis Santos & Rohollah Rohparwar · Co-Founders & Managing Directors

CONTENTS
Inside this issue.
01Executive DashboardEight headline indicators03
02PerformanceADR, occupancy, RevPAR, 24-month rhythm04
03Global BenchmarkRegulation across gateway cities07
04Supply & DemandInventory, guests, tourism arrivals08
05Submarket AtlasSubmarket metrics, mapped and ranked11
06Yield & CatalystsInvestor lens, Q2 announcements, outlook15
07MethodologyDefinitions, validation, source coverage18
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
03 / 19
01 - EXECUTIVE DASHBOARD
Q2 2026 in eight numbers.
Each metric is shown with its year-on-year change given equal prominence — because in this market, the trajectory matters as much as the level.
CITYWIDE ADRAED
AED 373
-17.9%
Rates repriced after the mid-March demand shock.
vs AED 455 · Q2 '25
CITYWIDE OCCUPANCY%
48%
-25.6 pts
Tourist demand fell sharply from mid-March.
vs 73.3% · Q2 '25
CITYWIDE REVPARAED
178
-46.5%
Rate and occupancy fell together as tourist demand stopped.
vs AED 333 · Q2 '25
ACTIVE LISTINGS · DUBAILISTINGS
33,795
+10.2%
Listings peaked at 36,500 in January, contracting since March.
-7.4% vs Jan peak.
vs 30,680 · Q2 '25
CITYWIDE LOSNIGHTS
6.0 nts
+1.0 nts
Longer stays supported revenue stability.
vs 5.0 nts · Q2 '25
MARKET BOOKING WINDOWDAYS
2.0 days
-2.0 days
Uncertainty compressed booking lead times.
vs 4.0 days · Q2 '25
FC PORTFOLIO LENGTH OF STAYNIGHTS
21.3 nts
+14.8 nts
The model shift in one number.
vs 6.0 nts market Q2 '25: 6.5 nts
FC PORTFOLIO OCC.%
87%
+2.2 pts
Occupancy held through the shock while the market fell 25.6 points.
vs 84.9% · Q2 '25
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
04 / 19
CHAPTER 02
02
Performance.
Average daily rate, occupancy, RevPAR, length of stay and booking-window rhythm.
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
05 / 19
02.1 - CITYWIDE PERFORMANCE
A demand shock, and a market repriced.
Average daily rate, occupancy, RevPAR, length of stay, and booking-window rhythm show how the quarter moved against last year.
FIG 2.1 · MARKET REVPAR · Q2 '25 vs Q2 '26
AED 178 per available night, versus AED 333 one year earlier.
AED / AVAILABLE NIGHT -46.5% YoY 4003002001000 AED 333 Q2 '25 AED 178 Q2 '26
FIG 2.2 · ADR BY UNIT TYPE · AED
Premium units widen the spread.
Studio
224 -15.8% YoY
1 Bed
294 -16.5% YoY
2 Bed
453 -25.3% YoY
3 Bed
601 -31.0% YoY
Other
1,027 -2.3% YoY
FIG 2.3 · OCCUPANCY GAUGE
FC portfolio 39.4 pts above market.
47.7% MARKET 87.1%FC PORTFOLIO 0% 100% +39.4 PTS PORTFOLIO SPREAD
FIG 2.4 · LENGTH OF STAY · NIGHTS
Market median 6.0 nights · up 1.0 night YoY.
Studio
11.0 nts
1 Bed
6.0 nts
2 Bed
6.0 nts
3 Bed
5.0 nts
Other
4.6 nts
FC Portfolio
21.3 nts
FIG 2.5 · BOOKING WINDOW · DAYS
2.0 days · down 2.0 days YoY.
0d5d10d 4.0D · Q2 '25 2.0DCURRENT COMPRESSED 2.0 DAYS
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
06 / 19
02.2 - TWENTY-FOUR MONTH RHYTHM
Two years of demand, and a quarter that broke pattern.
December 2025 set an all-time RevPAR high; the mid-March escalation then cut tourist demand and repriced the spring.
Q2 2026 7005253501750 Peak 659 Second peak 619 Q2 178 · -46.5% Jul '24Oct '24Jan '25Apr '25Jul '25Oct '25Jan '26Apr '26Jun '26
March Broke the PatternQ2 2026 RevPAR closed at AED 178, -46.5% year over year.
A Distorted SpringQ2 is a shock reading, not a baseline one. Compare levels with care.
Shorter Booking WindowsCompressed lead times became a more important operating constraint for pricing and revenue management.
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
07 / 19
03 - REGULATION ACROSS GATEWAY CITIES
Six cities. Six operating regimes.
Regulatory regimes compared, from official public sources.
01
Dubai
Regulated growth

Holiday homes operate through a formal registration and unit-approval framework.

Source: Dubai DET
02
Paris
Night cap

Primary residences may be rented as furnished tourist accommodation for up to 90 days annually.

Source: City of Paris
03
London
Night cap

Entire-home short letting is capped at 90 nights per calendar year without planning permission.

Source: Greater London Authority
04
New York
Highly restrictive

Sub-30-day stays generally require host presence, registration, and a two-guest limit.

Source: NYC Office of Special Enforcement
05
Singapore
Residential STR prohibited

Private residential properties cannot be used for stays shorter than three consecutive months.

Source: Urban Redevelopment Authority
06
Riyadh
Permit-led growth

Tourist accommodation operators require a Ministry licence and supporting commercial, municipal and safety approvals.

Source: Saudi Ministry of Tourism

Dubai's permit-led framework stands apart from hard night caps, host-presence rules and outright residential restrictions. Regulation is not a footnote to market performance; it defines the addressable supply.

Q2 2026 · Vol. I
08 / 19
04.1 - SUPPLY & INVENTORY
Supply peaked in January, and has been correcting since.
Active listings peaked at 36,500 in January and have fallen every month since March, even as the handover pipeline keeps delivering new stock. Gross exits are larger than the net decline shows.
DUBAI SHORT-TERM RENTAL LISTINGS · Q2 CLOSE
33,795
30,680 one year earlier.
JANUARY PEAK
36,500
7.4% below the peak at quarter end.
DLD RESIDENTIAL PROJECT PIPELINE · NEXT 12 MONTHS
49,581
All residential tenures in active DLD projects with explicit published completion dates from July 2026 through June 2027; not a short-term rental forecast. 62,910 units across 204 active projects have no published completion date and are excluded.
FIG 4.1 - SHORT-TERM RENTAL LISTINGS BY UNIT TYPE
Studio 9%
1 Bed 55%
2 Bed 23%
3 Bed 6%
Other 7%
Studio · 9.4%1 Bed · 55.4%2 Bed · 22.9%3 Bed · 5.8%Other · 6.5%
FIG 4.2 - SHORT-TERM RENTAL LISTINGS BY SELECTED DUBAI SUBMARKET
Dubai Marina
4.4K
Downtown Dubai
3.4K
JVC
2.7K
Business Bay
2.1K
Palm Jumeirah
1.5K
JBR
919
Dubai Creek Harbour
678
Al Jaddaf
564

Selected submarkets can overlap broader market boundaries and are therefore shown as observed listing counts, not as a 100% market share.

Q2 2026 · Vol. I
09 / 19
04.2 - GUEST CONTACT GEOGRAPHY
Where portfolio guests connect from.
Guest contact geography shows the geographic pattern of the quarter without treating contact location as nationality or residence.
FIG 4.4 - FIRST CLASS PORTFOLIO · STAY COMPOSITION
Monthly stay
69.4%
Extended stay
21.3%
Leisure week
6.6%
Short stay
2.7%

The stay mix is the March repositioning made visible: 69.4% of portfolio nights came from bookings lasting 29 nights or longer.

FIG 4.5 - FIRST CLASS PORTFOLIO · PLATFORM SHARE
Airbnb
77.5%
Booking.com
13.8%
Direct
7.9%
Other OTAs
0.8%
FIG 4.3A - TOP 5 GUEST CONTACT MARKETS
Dubai UAE · 41.1% UK 14.4% US 4.9% France 4.7% India 3.0%
FIG 4.3B - TOP 9 GUEST CONTACT COUNTRIES + OTHER
United Arab Emirates
41.1%
United Kingdom
14.4%
United States
4.9%
France
4.7%
India
3.0%
Germany
2.4%
Türkiye
1.7%
Russia
1.7%
Spain
1.6%
Other
24.5%
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
10 / 19
04.3 - TOURISM ARRIVALS
Demand, interrupted.
Official visitor releases end in January. The shaded window adds the sourced market-occupancy signal without extending the visitor series.
FIG 4.6 - DUBAI MONTHLY VISITORS - MILLIONS
0.75M1.13M1.50M1.88M2.25M Jul '24Oct '24Jan '25Apr '25Jul '25Oct '25Jan '26Apr '26Jun '26 Peak 2.04M LATEST · Jan '26 2.00M VISITORS DET MONTHLY RELEASES PAUSED AFTER JANUARY MARCH 40% MARKET OCCUPANCY VS 68% A YEAR EARLIER MID-MARCH REGIONAL CONFLICT ESCALATION
DUBAI · 2025 · PRE-DISRUPTION RECORD
19.59M
International overnight visitors rose 5% year on year to a third consecutive record.
ABU DHABI · 2025 · PRE-DISRUPTION RECORD
26.6M
Total visitors, including 5.9M hotel guests. This broader definition is not directly comparable with Dubai international overnight visitors.
DUBAI · 2026 YTD · THROUGH JAN '26
2.00M
+3.0% year on year. Latest official overnight-visitor release available for this edition.
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
11 / 19
CHAPTER 05
05
Submarket Atlas.
Neighbourhood-level ADR, occupancy and income signals shaped into an investor-ready read.
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
12 / 19
05.1 - SUBMARKET ATLAS
The six neighbourhoods that move the market.
Neighbourhood labels follow the active listing footprint and recent ADR / occupancy indicators. Q2 levels reflect the post-March demand shock. Read them as cyclical, not structural.
FIG 5.1 - DUBAI SUBMARKET MAP
Arabian GulfAl SufouhAl BarshaZa’abeel Palm Jumeirah ADR 682 · OCC 52% Dubai Marina ADR 371 · OCC 46% JBR ADR 365 · OCC 39% Downtown Dubai ADR 499 · OCC 59% DIFC ADR 434 · OCC 37% Business Bay ADR 327 · OCC 56%
Mapped ADR / Occupancy
Palm Jumeirah
AED 682 52% occ · -26% YoY
Dubai Marina
AED 371 46% occ · -32% YoY
JBR
AED 365 39% occ · -43% YoY
Downtown Dubai
AED 499 59% occ · -28% YoY
DIFC
AED 434 37% occ · -25% YoY
Business Bay
AED 327 56% occ · -25% YoY
Market centre Selected premium cluster Primary road network
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
13 / 19
05.2 - UAE PREMIUM MAP
Three markets. Three distinct operating rhythms.
Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Ras Al Khaimah are shown on the same Q2 short-term rental market basis, with selected premium clusters mapped inside each corridor.
FIG 5.2 - UAE PREMIUM MARKET MAP
Saadiyat Island REVPAR AED 279 · OCC 46% Yas Island REVPAR AED 280 · OCC 57% Al Reem Island REVPAR AED 262 · OCC 62% Al Marjan Island REVPAR AED 95 · OCC 30% Al Hamra Village REVPAR AED 193 · OCC 41% Mina Al Arab REVPAR AED 305 · OCC 49% Palm Jumeirah REVPAR AED 353 · OCC 52% Dubai Marina REVPAR AED 170 · OCC 46% Downtown Dubai REVPAR AED 297 · OCC 59% Abu Dhabi Dubai Ras Al Khaimah
Three UAE Market Corridors
Dubai AED 178 REVPAR · 47.7% OCC

33.8K active short-term rental listings at quarter end.

Abu Dhabi AED 167 REVPAR · 41.4% OCC

2.9K active short-term rental listings at quarter end.

Ras Al Khaimah AED 177 REVPAR · 28.1% OCC

914 active short-term rental listings at quarter end.

Market centre Selected premium cluster Primary road network
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
14 / 19
05.3 - SUBMARKETS RANKED BY ADR
All available submarkets, ranked.
Each card uses dynamic ADR, occupancy and ADR year-over-year values from submarket metadata.
Palm Jumeirah
Market cluster
ADR
682
OCC
52%
YoY
-26%
Jumeirah 1
Market cluster
ADR
584
OCC
49%
YoY
+4%
Downtown Dubai
Market cluster
ADR
499
OCC
59%
YoY
-28%
DIFC
Market cluster
ADR
434
OCC
37%
YoY
-25%
JVT
Market cluster
ADR
392
OCC
40%
YoY
+5%
Dubai Creek Harbour
Market cluster
ADR
379
OCC
66%
YoY
-21%
Dubai Marina
Market cluster
ADR
371
OCC
46%
YoY
-32%
Al Furjan
Market cluster
ADR
368
OCC
51%
YoY
+44%
JBR
Market cluster
ADR
365
OCC
39%
YoY
-43%
Dubai Sports City
Market cluster
ADR
350
OCC
38%
YoY
+28%
DAMAC Hills
Market cluster
ADR
341
OCC
53%
YoY
-16%
Business Bay
Market cluster
ADR
327
OCC
56%
YoY
-25%
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
15 / 19
06.1 - SHORT-TERM RENTAL VS LONG-TERM RENTAL
One home type. One asset-value basis.
One-bedroom short-term rental gross yield equalled 1.4x effective long-term rental yield across matched submarkets.
FIG 6.1 - ONE-BEDROOM GROSS YIELD BY SUBMARKET
0%5%10%
Dubai Marina
7.4%
4.9%
Downtown Dubai
6.9%
4.6%
Palm Jumeirah
5.4%
4.7%
Business Bay
6.5%
5.2%
JBR
6.2%
5.3%
JVC
8.5%
5.8%
Dubai Creek Harbour
7.5%
4.8%
JLT
8.2%
6.3%
Short-Term RentalLong-Term Rental

Like-for-like one-bedroom comparison. Short-term rental income sums twelve observed monthly revenue values per active short-term rental listing from July 2025 through June 2026, preserving seasonality. Long-term rent is inferred from neighbourhood-calibrated one-bedroom size bands and adjusted as annual contract rent / 12 x 10 to allow two months to secure a suitable tenant. Each income stream is divided by the same median one-bedroom resale transaction price. Gross yields exclude operating and transaction costs.

TOP FIVE - SHORT-TERM RENTAL GROSS YIELD
SubmarketShort-TermLong-TermSpread
Dubai Production City10.8%8.3%+2.4%
JVC8.5%5.8%+2.7%
JLT8.2%6.3%+2.0%
DAMAC Hills7.6%6.5%+1.1%
Dubai Creek Harbour7.5%4.8%+2.7%
“Long-term rents are softening and vacancy is rising. Flexible monthly stays are absorbing the flow.”
Short-Term Rental7.2%
Long-Term Rental5.2%
Yield ratio1.4xShort-term rental gross yield is 1.4x effective long-term rental yield.
Q2 2026 · Vol. I
16 / 19
06.2 - Q2 MARKET CATALYSTS
What Q2 announced that the market will feel for years.
The quarter’s announcements point to where demand, mobility, and operating economics may compound after the current cycle.
28 Apr 2024
Al Maktoum International Airport expansion
Dubai approved the new passenger terminal plan at Al Maktoum International Airport, a long-cycle aviation capacity move that reshapes the south-west growth corridor.
BACKGROUND · Dubai Media Office
07 May 2025
Disney theme park and resort planned for Yas Island
Disney and Miral announced plans for a waterfront theme park resort on Yas Island, strengthening the UAE family-leisure destination stack.
BACKGROUND · The Walt Disney Company
30 Mar 2026
Dubai South HAYAT moves into construction
Dubai South awarded an AED 2bn contract for HAYAT, a 10m sq ft community near Al Maktoum International Airport; construction starts in Q2 2026.
DUBAI SOUTH · AIRPORT CORRIDOR · NEW SUPPLY
02 Apr 2026
Hospitality relief includes holiday homes
Dubai’s AED 1bn incentive package gave operators three months of fee relief from 1 April 2026, explicitly covering hotels, hotel apartments, and holiday homes. Introduced in response to the March disruption.
REGULATION · HOLIDAY HOMES · LIQUIDITY
14 May 2026
Sphere Abu Dhabi selected for Yas Island
DCT Abu Dhabi and Sphere Entertainment selected Yas Island for a USD 1.7bn, 20,000-capacity venue expected by the end of 2029.
YAS ISLAND · EVENT-LED DEMAND
Q2 2026
Dubai Metro Blue Line construction progress
The 30 km, 14-station Blue Line is 10% complete and expected to reach 30% by year-end, improving access to Creek Harbour, Silicon Oasis, Mirdif, and Academic City.
MOBILITY · NEW ACCESSIBLE SUBMARKETS
MARKET LENS
“The next demand pools are being written into mobility, regulation, and destination infrastructure before they show up in nightly rates.”
WHY IT MATTERS FOR STR

Q2’s catalyst stack points to a market being shaped by access, regulation, and destination depth before those signals fully appear in nightly rates. Fee relief supports operators now; Dubai South and the Blue Line widen the investable map; Yas Island strengthens the regional demand story.

FIRST CLASS POSITIONING

First Class should keep Dubai’s core operating base tight while watching infrastructure-led corridors selectively: Dubai South for airport-linked stays, Blue Line submarkets for access-led demand, and Yas/Saadiyat for event-led UAE itinerary depth.

Q2 2026 · Vol. I
17 / 19
06.3 - OUTLOOK · THROUGH Q4 2026
What we expect — and why.
Three forecasts for the next two quarters, each with the reasoning and evidence behind it.
FORECAST · 01

Booking windows stay compressed

2.0d
MARKET
Why: A 2.0-day market booking window in Q2 2026 leaves less forward visibility than the 4.0-day window in Q2 2025, making weekly pricing and availability decisions more important through the next two quarters.
FORECAST · 02

Longer stays remain the release valve

69.4%
29+ NIGHT STAYS · PORTFOLIO
Why: The 69.4% share of 29+ night stays gives the portfolio a more stable base of occupied nights and reduces exposure to short booking-window volatility.
FORECAST · 03

Infrastructure corridors stay investable

2028+
MARKET
Why: Dubai South, the airport corridor, and the Blue Line all point to a multi-year shift in accessibility and demand geography. These signals do not make every emerging area investable, but they improve the case for professionally managed units where infrastructure will make stays easier. The opportunity is selective and should be tied to access, supply quality, and operating discipline.

Risks to monitor.

Risk to monitor: compressed booking windows leave less visibility if the conflict backdrop turns into cancellations or late demand shocks. The base case remains resilient demand, but pricing decisions need to stay closer to arrival.

Where the opportunity sits.

Where opportunity sits: longer-stay furnished demand, infrastructure-led corridors, and professionally managed larger units where operational discipline can convert short booking windows into rate capture.

Q2 2026 · Vol. I
18 / 19
APPENDIX · METHODOLOGY
Every figure, every source.
Built on four data layers — first-party operations, platform aggregators, government open data, and macro statistics — reconciled against each other.

Approach.

The Index combines first-party transactional operating data, aggregated short-term-rental market benchmarks, transactional and licensing data from official open-data sources, and tourism, macroeconomic, and visitor statistics from emirate and federal authorities. Headline metrics are reconciled across the relevant layers before publication.

Definitions.

ADR · Average daily rate; revenue divided by paid nights.
Occupancy · Paid nights divided by available rental nights; owner stays and non-rental blocks are excluded.
RevPAR · Revenue per available rental; ADR multiplied by occupancy.
Quarter-active listing · A unit active for at least one day during the reporting quarter.
Monthly stay · A reservation of 29 nights or longer.
Professionally managed · A portfolio operated with institutional pricing, service, and reporting discipline.

Data sources.

  • First Class PortfolioFirst-party reservations, availability, channel mix, stay-pattern, and portfolio performance data.
  • Market benchmark layerQuarterly ADR, occupancy, RevPAR, length-of-stay, booking-window, supply, and submarket indicators.
  • Official property registerSales, rents, unit, building, project, and licensing data where available.
  • Tourism authoritiesVisitor arrivals, hotel performance, airport capacity, and destination demand indicators. March disruption context: Dubai Airports Q1 2026 traffic release, 4 May 2026.
  • Macro statisticsFederal and emirate-level economic, demographic, and labour-market context.
Sample. 33.8K active STR listings. Portfolio occupancy excludes owner stays, maintenance, and technical blocks from the available inventory denominator.
Period. Q2 2026; YoY versus Q2 2025.
Currency. AED unless otherwise stated. Global benchmarks use USD-equivalent values where applicable.
Cartography. World geometry from Natural Earth. Dubai and UAE map data from OpenStreetMap, rendered in-house with Protomaps. openstreetmap.org/copyright.
First Class
Perfected by First Class — not as a tagline, but as the operating standard we hold ourselves and our market to. This report is the next chapter in that promise.”
— THE FIRST CLASS RESEARCH TEAM
EDITORIAL

research@firstclass-dxb.com
Media: press@firstclass-dxb.com

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